Home Affordability Set To Worsen On Thursday's Retail Sales Data

Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers |*STATE in % STATE**|, it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.

Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November.

This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.

The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.

Retail Sales are the largest part of "consumer spending" and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

As the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

Remember: today's ultra-low mortgage rates have been partially fueled by weak economies -- both domestic and abroad -- going back 4 years. Stock markets have sold off as economies have faltered worldwide, leading investors to seek refuge in the relative safety of U.S.-backed mortgage bond market. The new-found demand for mortgage-backed bonds has helped drop mortgage rates to levels never seen in history.

When economic recovery is apparent, therefore, we should expect a mortgage rate reversal, and should expect for it to happen quickly. Stock markets should rise; bond markets should fall. Mortgage rates will climb. Rate shoppers will lose.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy. If Thursday Retail Sales data reveals similar strength, the risk in "floating" your mortgage rate may be too great. The safer play is to lock your rate today.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Retail Sales Expected To Rise; Mortgage Rates Should Rise, Too

The American Consumer is alive and well, it seems.

Friday morning, the Census Bureau will release its Retail Sales figures for September. The report is expected to show an increase in gross receipts for the 15th straight month with analysts predicting a 0.6 percent increase from August.

The projected increase represents the largest jump in Retail Sales in six months and would likely lead mortgage rates higher for buyers in Brooklyn, NY and   nationwide.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly straight-forward. Retail Sales are the majority component of "consumer spending" and consumer spending represents the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

And, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

10 months ago, mortgage rates shot forward to start the year. This is because expectations were high for a strong economic rebound. Conforming and FHA rates crossed 5 percent at the time and were headed toward six.

By mid-April, though, it was clear that economic data was falling short of predictions. As a result, mortgage rates declined, kicking off the 2011 Refi Boom. Then, by August, on ongoing economic softness, mortgage rates in New York fell further, making new all-time lows.

Expectations for a recovery have returned. Rates are now rising.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy and investors have been voting with their dollars. Mortgage rates are now up 7 consecutive days and Friday's Retail Sales report could cement the trend.

If you're shopping mortgage rates today, there's risk in "floating". You may want to lock your rate before Friday's Retail Sales report drives rates even higher.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Retail Sales Rise For 7th Straight Month; Mortgage Rates Worsen

If consumer spending is a keystone element in the U.S. economic recovery, a full-on rebound is likely underway.

Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its national January Retail Sales figures and, for the seventh straight month, the data surpassed expectations. Last month's retail figures climbed 0.3 percent as total sales receipts reached an all-time high.

It's good news for the economy which is scratching back after a prolonged recession, but decidedly bad news for people in want of a mortgage across the state of New York. This includes home buyers and would-be refinancers alike.

Because consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy, Retail Sales growth means more economic growth and that draws Wall Street's dollars toward riskier investments, including equities, at the expense of safer investments such as mortgage-backed bonds.

On the heels of the Retail Sales report's release, bond prices are falling this morning. As a consequence, mortgage rates are rising. It's the same pattern we've seen since mid-November -- "good news" about the economy sparks a stock market frenzy, casuing mortgage bonds to rise.

A sampling of other recent good-for-the-economy stories include:

• Corporate earnings are rising quickly (Marketwatch)
• Existing Home Sales up 12% month-over-month (CNN Money)
• The Fed says the economy looks "brighter" (Bloomberg)

The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages are over. 5 percent is the new market benchmark. Unless the economy keeps showing strength. Then, that number may rise to six percent.

If you're thinking of buying or refinancing a home, consider how rising rates will hit your budget. You may want to take that next step sooner than you had planned -- if only to protect your monthly payments.

Retail Sales Weak In December; Home Affordability Gets A Boost

Consumers keep spending, the economy keeps growing.

Mortgage rates are easing lower this morning on just-released, slightly worse-than-expected Retail Sales data from December 2010.

Excluding motor vehicles and auto parts, December's sales receipts were $1.5 billion higher from November. Analysts had expected a number north of $2 billion.

Despite falling short of estimates, however, December's reading is the highest in Retail Sales history, surpassing the previous record set in July 2008, set during the recession. In addition, December's strong numbers helped 2010's year-over-year numbers go positive for the first time in 3 years.

Although the data is a mixed bag for Wall Street, home affordability in Brooklyn, NY is improving today.

The link between Retail Sales and home affordability may not be up-front obvious, but in a post-recession economy like ours, it's often tight. Retail Sales is another name for "consumer spending" and consumer spending makes up more that 70% of the U.S. economy.

As spending grows, the economy tends to, too.

Investors recognize this and start chasing "risk". It becomes a boost for the stock market, but those gains are made at the expense of "safe" asset classes which include mortgage-backed bonds. Mortgage-backed bonds are the basis for conforming and FHA mortgage rates so, as bond markets sell off, asset prices fall and rates move up.

Thankfully, rate shoppers will avoid that scenario today -- at least for today. December's Retail Sales results are a factor in the bond market's early-day improvement. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates across the state of New York should be lower today.

Despite the good news, if you're shopping for a mortgage, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. Mortgage rates are coming off a 2-week rally and look poised to reverse appear -- especially with a full docket of data due for next week. As mortgage rates rise, purchasing power falls.