What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 18, 2014

Last week's economic news was dominated by the first address by the new Fed chairperson, Janet Yellen.

Tuesday's news included the Jobs Openings report for December 2013, which matched November's reading of 4.0 million jobs available.

This information was taken from a gauge of competition for available jobs; in December, competition for job openings fell to its lowest level in five years.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's First Address to House

Janet Yellen addressed the House Financial Services Committee for the first time on Tuesday as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Ms. Yellen indicated that she expected "a great deal of continuity" in terms of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy direction, and noted that markets should expect the FOMC to continue its support of low interest rates.

Chairman Yellen emphasized that the FOMC's current tapering of its quantitative easing program was expected to continue, but is not on a pre-determined course.

If economic conditions change, the Fed's monetary policy would be adjusted according to such developments.

Mortgage Rates Mixed According To Freddie Mac

According to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 4.28 percent from the prior week's 4.23 percent.

The average rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgage mortgages was unchanged at 3.33 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped from 3.08 percent to 3.05 percent.

Discount points for each category were unchanged at 0.70 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

In other news, Weekly Jobless Claims were higher last week at 339,000 against a forecast of 330,000 new jobless claims and the prior week's reading of 331,000 new jobless claims.

Analysts cited bad weather and the possibility of slower economic growth as factors, but said that it was too soon to tell if economic growth is slowing down.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations with a reading of 81.2 against expectations for a reading of 80.0. February's reading was unchanged from January.

What's Coming Up

This week's economic news includes the NAHB Home Builder's Housing Market Index on Tuesday. Wednesday's events include Housing Starts and the minutes from January's FOMC meeting.

In addition to Freddie Mac's PMMS, Thursday's scheduled reports include Weekly Jobless Claims, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for January will also be released.

The National Association of REALTORS® will release data for existing home sales in January on Friday.

 

FOMC Statement Shows Tapering Of Quantitative Easing Purchases

According to a statement provided by the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve, the committee has approved another reduction of the Fed's monthly asset purchases.

The adjustment will be made in February and cuts monthly purchases of mortgage backed securities from $35 billion to $30 billion and monthly purchases of Treasury securities from $40 billion to $35 billion.

FOMC began reducing its asset purchase under its quantitative easing program in January, when the monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities was reduced from $85 billion per month to $75 billion.

Citing its goals of maximum employment and price stability, the FOMC said that it has seen consistent improvement in the economy and specifically mentioned a lower, but still elevated unemployment rate. The statement also indicated that the FOMC expected labor markets to improve. 

FOMC Asset Purchases: How They Impact Mortgage Rates

The Fed initiated the QE program in an effort to control rising long-term interest rates, which include mortgage rates. Yesterday, the FOMC statement said that Fed expects its purchases of longer-term assets will continue to control long-term interest rates and mortgage rates while supporting mortgage markets.

FOMC's statement reported that it sees the risks to its economic outlook and the labor market as having become nearly balanced. The FOMC is still looking for inflation to reach its 2.00 percent goal.

Fed Monetary Policy To Remain "Highly Accommodative"

The Fed intends to maintain a highly accommodative stance on monetary policy after the QE asset purchases end and the economy is significantly stronger. The current Federal Funds Rate of between 0.00 and 0.250 percent will be maintained at least until the national unemployment rate drops below 6.50 percent.

FOMC members reaffirmed their commitment to monitoring economic indicators as part of any decision to alter current QE measures or the Federal Funds Rate. 

Indicators Mentioned In The FOMC Statement Include:

• Additional indicators of labor market conditions
• Inflationary pressures and expectations
• Readings on financial developments

FOMC statements have consistently included the committee's assertion that no arbitrary benchmark alone will be sufficient for the committee to change either QE asset purchases or the Federal Funds Rate.

FOMC stated that it will seek a "balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation at two percent."

Although fears of tapering the Fed's monthly asset purchases may persist, it appears that each FOMC decision to reduce asset purchases under the QE program indicates economic growth.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 03, 2014

Last week brought mixed news; while the Department of Commerce reported a dip in new home sales, mortgage rates also fell. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement revealed that quantitative easing would be further reduced by an additional $10 billion monthly.

New Home Sales: Y-O-Y Reading Best Since 2008

December's reading of 414,000 for new home sales fell short of November's revised reading of 445,000 new homes sold as well as expected sales of $455,000. The consensus figure was based on November's original sales reading of 464,000 new homes sold.

The inventory of new homes available rose from last month's level of 4.70 month supply to a 5 month supply in December. Cold weather was cited as a cause of lower new home sales.

New home sales increased by 4.50 percent year-over-year; this was the highest reading since 2008. The median price of a new home rose by 0.60 percent in December to $270,299. 

The national median home price was $265,800 in 2013, an annual growth rate of 8.40 percent and the highest annual growth rate for median home prices since 2005.

Economists cited rising mortgage rates, new mortgage rules and a lagging labor market as signs that slower home sales could be expected in 2014.

Pending home sales echoed the slowing trend in home sales; the index reading fell by -8.70 percent to a reading of 92.4 in December.

All Four Regions Reported A Drop In Pending Sales As Compared To November:

Northeast              -10.30 percent

West                    -9.80 percent

South                   -8.80 percent

Midwest                -6.80 percent

This was the lowest reading for pending home sales since October 2011.

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Up 13.7%

The Case-Shiller 10 and 20 city home price indices for November reported a 13.70 percent gain in home prices year-over-year. This was the fastest annual growth rate in home prices since 2006. Further evidence of slower growth in home prices was evident as nine of 20 cities tracked reported lower home prices.

Fed Continues Stimulus Reduction

Wednesday's FOMC statement confirmed expectations that the Fed would continue tapering its monthly asset purchases made under its quantitative easing program.

Monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities will be reduced from January's level of $75 billion to $65 billion in February. Economists expected this reduction to occur.

Freddie Mac's Primary Market Survey reported lower average mortgage rates. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by 7 basis points to 4.32 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.7 percent.

15-year mortgage rates also fell to 3.40 percent with discount points lower at 0.60 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by 3 basis points to 3.12 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent.

This was welcome news as homebuyers and mortgage lenders have felt the effects of higher home prices and new mortgage rules that became effective January 10.

New Jobless Claims Higher

Weekly jobless claims jumped to 348,000 from the prior week's 339,000 new jobless claims. This was the highest level of new jobless claims in six weeks. Reasons for increased claims were unclear, but were possibly caused by lingering influences of the holiday season or a sinking labor market.

Consumer confidence rose in January to a reading of 80.7 as compared to December's reading of 77.5 as compared to January 2012's reading of 58.4.

This Week

This week's scheduled economic and housing news includes construction spending, non-farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate. Freddie Mac's PMMS report and weekly jobless claims will be released as usual on Thursday.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 15, 2013

The Fed's release of the minutes for the June FOMC meeting was the most noteworthy economic event last week; the minutes repeated the Fed's recent statement concerning the wind-down of its current monetary easing policy.

The minutes indicated that about half of meeting participants wanted to end the quantitative easing (QE) policy by year end, while "many others" preferred to end the program in 2014.

This split suggests that days are numbered for the Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The minutes also revealed that the Fed would not be selling off MBS as QE is ended. This would likely prevent additional potential for mortgage rates to increase as demand for bonds would decline when the Fed stops its monthly purchases.

Mortgage Rates Typically Rise When Bond And MBS Prices Fall

U.S. financial markets showed little reaction to the Fed minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a quick gain of about 40 points that quickly retreated. The Wall Street Journal interprets the lackluster response to the Fed minutes as investors growing accustomed to the eventual end of the QE program; it's also possible that the markets interpreted the FOMC minutes as "old news," as the minutes contained information included in the Fed statement given after June's FOMC meeting.

The FOMC minutes reported that details of tapering the QE program will be given by Chairman Ben Bernanke during his customary press conference after the Fed presents the FOMC meeting statement. The minutes also asserted that the Fed will closely monitor economic and financial developments as part of their decision-making for ending QE.

The minutes stated that the current Federal Funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent will remain in place for some time after QE is ended.

Mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved to 4.51 percent from last week's 4.29 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 3.53 percent from 3.39 percent. Discount points for both types of loans rose from 0.70 percent to 0.80 percent.

Rising mortgage rates suggest that borrowers may soon return to adjustable rate mortgages or hybrids such as the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage, which was reported at an average rate of 3.26 percent with discount points of 0.70 percent.

What's Coming Up

On Monday, retail sales for June will be released. This is an important indicator for the general economy. Tuesday's news includes NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July.

On Wednesday, Housing Starts for June will be released. Thursday's news includes weekly Jobless Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. No economic news is scheduled for Friday.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 20, 2013

Last week was jam-packed with economic news; here are some highlights with emphasis on housing and mortgage related news:

Monday: Retail sales for April increased to -0.1 percent from the March reading of -0.5 percent and also surpassed Wall Street's downward forecast of -0.6 percent. Retail sales are important to economic recovery as sales of goods and services represent approximately 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

Tuesday: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism Index for April with encouraging results. April's index rose by 2.6 points to 92.1. A reading of 90.7 indicates economic recovery. This index is based on a survey of 1873 NFIB member businesses.

Wednesday: The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for May matched investor expectations with a reading of 44. At three points above the March reading of 41, this report suggests that builders are slowly gaining confidence in national housing markets. 

Thursday: The U.S. Commerce Department reported that Housing Starts fell by 16.5 percent in April to a seasonally-adjusted annual level of 853,000 from 1.02 million housing starts in March. This reading fell short of investors' consensus of 965,000 housing starts, however, this decrease was caused by the volatile apartment construction sector.

Friday: Consumer sentiment for May surpassed investor expectations of +0.3 percent and came in at +0.6 percent. As consumer sentiment improves, it's likely that more consumers will buy homes.

Rising Interest Rates Show Strengthening Economy

Mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 3.42 percent to 3.51 percent with borrowers paying 0.70 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

15-year fixed rate mortgages rose from 2.61 percent last week to 2.69 percent this week with borrowers paying 0.70 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

This news is consistent with a strengthening economy, but is narrowing opportunities for home buyers seeking both affordable home prices and low mortgage rates.

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes To Be Released This Week

Looking ahead, economic news for this week includes the Existing Home Sales report for April with an expectation of 5.00 million homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis against the March tally of 4.93 million homes sold.

Also set for release on Wednesday are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the meeting held April 30 and May 1. The FOMC meetings typically include discussions of the Federal Reserve's current policy on quantitative easing (QE) which consists of the Fed buying $85 billion per month in MBS and treasury bonds.

When the QE program ends, mortgage rates will likely increase as bond prices decline due to lesser demand.

Thursday brings the weekly Jobless Claims Report along with New Home Sales for April. The consensus for new homes sold is 430,000 as compared to the March reading of 417,000 new homes sold.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will release its Home Price Index for March on Thursday. 

Fed Meeting Statement Points To Continuing Low Interest Rates

Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement indicates the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping long term interest rates and inflation under control.

The Fed will continue monitoring inflation, but does not expect inflation to rise more than 0.50 percent above its target rate of 2.00 percent over the next one to two years.

Ongoing monitoring of inflation and unemployment, as well as developing economic news, will guide the Fed in its future determinations concerning policy for its present iteration of quantitative easing (QE3).

Currently, the Fed purchases $85 billion of treasury securities and mortgage –backed securities each month with the goal of keeping long-term interest rates lower.

This includes mortgage rates, which can assist homebuyers with qualifying for mortgage loans in an environment of increasing home prices. Other goals include stabilizing the labor market, and limiting inflation.

Job Growth To Be Determining Factor On Fed Interest Rate Action

The statement also noted that the Fed will keep its interest rates between 0.00 and 0.25 percent, until the Fed sees the national unemployment rate fall below 6.50 percent.

While noting that the housing sector is improving, the Fed stated concerns about ongoing high unemployment rates. Jobs are a key aspect to supporting the economy, as 70 percent of the U.S. economy involves the purchase of goods and services by consumers. 

The Fed also repeated its position to evaluate the efficacy of its quantitative easing program; if the agency finds that the program is not achieving their desired objectives, changes to the program can be expected.

While a clear majority of FOMC members voted to keep current policies intact, one member voted against this course of action citing the potential for continued quantitative easing at current levels to fuel inflation.

The bottom line for today's statement is that the Fed continues its "wait and see" position concerning quantitative easing and low federal interest rates.The committee also re-asserted its intention to gradually reduce quantitative easing when it's time for a change.

In addition, the Fed is committed to monitoring a wide range of economic data with an eye toward adjusting its policies in the best interest of economic recovery. 

Fed Meeting Statement Reveals Good News For Real Estate

The Federal Reserve's statement after yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left no doubt as to the Fed's dual commitment to keeping long term interest rates down and encouraging economic growth.

No changes to the Fed's current bond-buying program were made during today's FOMC meeting.

The Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in bonds and MBS works by boosting bond prices, which typically helps with keeping mortgage rates lower.

The Fed reaffirmed its position that it will not withdraw or reduce monetary easing until the unemployment rate is substantially lower.

Unemployment Rate Improving Nationally

Fed predictions for the national unemployment rate improved; December's outlook for 2013 estimated the unemployment rate at between 7.4 to 7.7 percent; the Fed now expects unemployment rates of 7.3 to 7.5 percent by the end of this year.

February's jobs report likely influenced this revision as the unemployment rate fell from 7.8 to 7.7 percent.

The Fed notes that while employment rates are improving, they remain elevated which supports the Fed's decision not to modify its bond purchase program in the near term.

Lower unemployment rates suggest that more people will be financially prepared for buying homes or refinancing their existing mortgage loans, and the unemployment rate is also expected to fall due to growing numbers of baby boomers leaving the workforce.

Lower Inflation Rates Boost Consumer Purchasing Power

The Fed slightly revised its December forecast for 2013 economic growth of between 2.3 to 3.0 percent.

Now the Fed predicts economic growth to range between 2.3 and 2.8 percent in 2013, but negative influences including a higher payroll tax and government spending cuts are expected to slow the rate of economic growth.

Concerning inflation, the Fed expects an inflation rate of between 1.3 and 1.7 percent this year and for inflation to remain below 2 percent through 2015.

Lower inflation rates allow consumers more discretionary spending power, which can further boost the economy and improve consumer confidence in making big ticket purchases including homes and related items and services in New York and around the country.

Fed Keeping Tabs On European Economic Issues

Fed officers are continuing to monitor economic developments in Europe, and expressed concerns that the situation remains fragile.

Commenting in a press conference held after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke characterized economic issues in Cyprus as “difficult”, but said that the Fed doesn't expect these developments to have major impact on U.S. financial markets.

Its plan to keep short term interest rates near zero until unemployment rates reach 6.5 percent or the inflation rate exceeds 2.5 percent further support the Fed's plan to keep its monetary easing policy intact for the near term.

Unless unexpected or catastrophic events occur which would cause sudden or rapid economic changes, the Fed appears unlikely to announce major changes in its policy.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 4, 2012

Mortgage rates worsened last week amid evidence of an improving economy. Conforming mortgage rates climbed in New York and nationwide, rising to a 4-month high.

Freddie Mac has the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.53% for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points plus a full set of closing costs.

There was plenty of news on which for rates to move last week.

First, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and voted to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range near 0.00 percent. The Fed also recommitted to purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury securities on the open market until such time as the national Unemployment Rate reaches 6.5%, or until inflation rates rise.

Then, Friday, it was shown in the Non-Farm Payrolls report that the national jobless rate had climbed to 7.9 percent, a statistic Wall Street pinned to Hurricane Sandy. In addition, it was shown that 157,000 net new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in January.

This was a slight improvement from the month prior's revised figures, and marked the 27th consecutive month of U.S. job growth. 

Also last week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported the December Pending Home Sales Index to be lower than expected; largely the result of shortages of available homes in many areas.

In addition, Durable Orders for December were more than twice what investors expected; a further indication of a strengthening U.S. economy.

Lastly, the ISM Index for January surpassed Wall Street's expectations. This manufacturing index is considered an indicator of future inflationary trends. An upward trend in this index suggests rising mortgage rates. While current mortgage rates remain relatively low, they can be expected to continue rising as the economy improves.

This upcoming week will be quieter with fewer economic series scheduled for release. Factory Orders for December will be announced, as will the ISM Services Index and Jobless Claims. Mortgage rates may continue to rise.

Breaking Down The Federal Reserve Statement (January 2013 Edition)

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the Federal Funds Rate within its current range of zero to 0.25 percent, and to continue its current stimulus program of purchasing $85 billion monthly in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Citing weather-related events such as Hurricane Sandy and drought in the Midwest, the committee said in its statement that information received since its December 2012 meeting "suggests that growth in economic activity has paused in recent months in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors."

Concerns over the then-looming fiscal cliff crisis may have also contributed to the economic contraction during the last quarter of 2012. Positive economic trends observed by the Fed included:

• Improved household spending
• Improving housing markets
• Growth in business fixed investments

The Fed initiated its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in September as part of an ongoing effort to hold down interest rates and to encourage business spending. The benchmark Federal Funds Rate will remain between zero and.0.25 percent until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent and provided that inflation remains stable.

The Fed Funds Rate has stayed near zero since December 2008.

The national unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in December, and Wall Street expects it to be 7.7 percent for January. The Department of Labor will release its monthly jobs report on Friday; this report includes the monthly unemployment rate. Inflation is expected to remain at or below the Fed's target level of 2.0 percent or less for the medium-term.

While noting that "strains on global financial markets have eased somewhat," the FOMC said that it "continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook." Low overall interest rates and gradual inflation work in favor of home buyers as home prices and mortgage rates are likely to rise at a gradual pace.

Mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY improved slightly after the FOMC release.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 28, 2013

Mortgage rates rose last week as investors gained confidence in the global economy. China and Europe posted better-than-expected manufacturing rates, U.S. Jobless Claims fell for the second straight week, and the worst of the European debt crisis appears to have passed.

Last week's economic news provided further evidence of a strengthening U.S. economy.

The National Association of REALTORS® released its Existing Home Sales report, which indicates that existing home sales improved by 13 percent on a year-over-year basis and are now at their highest point since 2007. The group expects sales of existing homes to increase by 9 percent in 2013.

The Commerce Department released its monthly New Home Sales report; while new home sales for December fell short of Wall Street's expectations, sales of new homes are almost 20 percent higher than they were one year ago.

Growing demand for homes coupled with lower inventories of available homes suggests that the days of rock-bottom home prices and low mortgage rates are dwindling.

According to Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan was 3.42 percent with borrowers paying 0.7 percent in discount points plus closing costs. The average rate for a 15- year fixed rate mortgage was 2.71 percent with borrowers paying 0.7 percent in discount points plus closing costs.

While slight, the week-over-week increase in mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY could become a trend.

Weekly Jobless Claims fell below Wall Street forecasts for the second week in a row. 330,000 new jobless claims were filed; far fewer new claims were filed than the 360,000 new jobless claims expected by investors. New jobless claims also fell below the prior week's 335,000 new jobless claims. Fewer jobless claims are a sign of a stabilizing economy.

Mortgage rates typically rise as investors gain confidence in the economy and financial markets.

This week's economic news calendar is jam-packed.

Investors await the outcome of the  Federal Open Market Committee's first scheduled meeting of 2013, treasury auctions are scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and the Pending Home Sales Index will be released.

Plus, the Department of Labor's Non-farm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Report will be released Friday morning.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 7, 2013

Mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY rose during the first week of 2013.

The fiscal cliff crisis was resolved prior to the market's opening Wednesday, when legislators voted to approve a deal. While many tax cuts were extended for taxpayers earning less than $450,000 annually, other facets of the fiscal cliff issue are yet to be addressed, including budget cuts for federal government agencies.

Investors were surprised to learn that the Fed may end its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) sometimes in 2013. The FOMC meeting minutes for December 2012 suggested that Fed support for its QE3 program has waned as the economy has improved.

First-time jobless claims increased for the week ending December 29, 2012 to 372,000 from the prior week's 350,000, worse than Wall Street's consensus opinion of 360,000 new jobless claims.

The December 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls surpassed analyst expectations, posting 155,000 net new jobs for the month. The report also showed the national Unemployment Rate rising one-tenth of one percentage point to 7.8%. When the jobless rate falls to 6.5%, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near zero percent.

Overall, mortgage rates rose by as much as 0.25 percentage points last week. However, because the increase occurred wholly between Wednesday and Friday, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey failed to include it.

Freddie Mac reported the previous week's average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.34 percent for borrowers paying 0.7 percent discount points plus closing costs. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.64 percent for borrowers paying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs.

As this week opens, mortgage rates are considerably higher.

This week's scheduled economic news includes Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday; weekly Jobless Claims report on Thursday; and not much else. There will be planned speeches, however, from five members of the Federal Reserve, including Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker.

Fed President Lacker was the lone dissenting vote among voting FOMC members in each of last year's policy votes. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 17, 2012

Mortgage bonds worsened last week, moving mortgage rates higher. Economic news was mostly positive and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed some of Wall Street expectations for future monetary policy.

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.32 percent nationwide for borrowers willing to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs. The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate was listed at 2.66 percent nationwide with an accompanying 0.6 discount points plus closing costs.

Both mortgage rates had climbed by week's end, however. Mortgage rates made their best levels Monday afternoon. Between Tuesday and Friday, mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY climbed.

Also last week, the National Association of Homebuilders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) reported 201 improving metropolitan economies nationwide. This index uses data including local employment statistics and home values to determine whether an area's economy is "improving".

76 new areas were added to the IMI list in December as compared to November. The geographic diversity the newly-added markets suggests an overall improvement in the national economy.

Last week's major event, however, was the 2-day Federal Reserve meeting, which adjourned Wednesday.

The post-meeting press release after included the Fed's commitment to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent where it's been since December 2008. However, the Fed announced a change to in its plans to raise the Fed Funds Rate from near-zero at a future date.

Previously, the Fed had said it would raise the Fed Funds Rate beginning in mid-2015. Now, the Fed says it will start to raise rates when the national unemployment rate reaches 6.5 percent.

This week, mortgage rates have a lot to move on including Housing Starts (Wednesday) and Existing Home Sales (Thursday) from the housing sector; Jobless Claims (Thursday) from the Labor Department; and a key inflation reading from the Department of Commerce. Each has the capability to move mortgage rates.

Markets will respond to Fiscal Cliff discussions, too.

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (December 12 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.

For the tenth consecutive meeting, the FOMC vote was nearly unanimous. Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker was the lone dissenter in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that, since its last meeting in late-October, the U.S. economy has expanded "at a moderate pace" despite "weather-related disruptions". It also acknowledged that "strains in global financial markets" remain a threat to U.S. economic growth.

This comment is in direct reference to the Eurozone, its sovereign debt concerns, and its nation's economies.

The Fed included the following observations in its statement, too :

1. Growth in employment is expanding but unemployment is elevated
2. Inflation pressures are stable, and below the Fed's target range of 2%
3. Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed

In addressing the housing market, the Fed said that there has been "further signs" of improvement and the group re-affirmed its commitment to the $40-billion monthly QE3 bond buying program.

QE3 is meant to suppress U.S. mortgage rates from rising too high, too quickly.

Lastly, the Federal Reserve announced an explicit economic target for when it will begin to consider raising the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near 0.000%. When the national Unemployment Rate reaches 6.5%, the Fed said, it will likely move to start raising its benchmark borrowing rate. 

Previously, the Fed had provided only a date-based target of mid-2015.

The 6.5% Unemployment Rate target may be pre-empted by rising inflation rates. The Fed does not expect price pressures to mount prior to jobless rates dropping from the current 7.7% levels, however.

Mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY are rising post-FOMC announcement. Many lenders raised mortgage rates mid-day Wednesday in response to the Fed's statement. 

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event scheduled for January 29-30, 2013.

The Federal Reserve Begins A 2-Day Meeting Today

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a 2-day meeting today, its last of 8 scheduled meetings this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-person subcommittee within the Federal Reserve. It's the group which votes upon U.S. monetary policy. 

The monetary policy action for which the FOMC is most well-known is its setting of the Fed Funds Funds. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other overnight.

Since late-2008, the Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent.

Prime Rate, a business and consumer interest rate used in lines of credit and credit card rates, is based on the Fed Funds Rate. Prime Rate has been similarly unchanged since 2008.

One rate which the Federal Reserve does not set is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate.

Like all other mortgage rates, the 30-year FRM is based on the market value of mortgage-backed bonds; securities bought and sold by investors.

There is no correlation between the Federal Reserve's Fed Funds Rate and the everyday homeowner's 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate. Some months, the two rates converge. Other months, they diverge. Since 2000, they've been separated by as many as 5.29 percentage points.

They've been as close as 0.52 percentage points.

However, although the Federal Reserve does not set U.S. mortgage rates, that doesn't mean that it can't influence them. The Fed's post-meeting press release has been known to make mortgage rates get volatile.

If, in its post-meeting press release, the Fed notes that the U.S. economy is slowing and that new economic stimulus is warranted, mortgage rates will likely fall throughout New York. This is because additional Fed stimulus would likely lend support to U.S. mortgage markets which would, in turn, boost demand for mortgage-backed bonds.

Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. economy and no need for new stimulus, mortgage rates are expected to rise.

Either way, mortgage rates will change Wednesday upon the FOMC's adjournment -- we just don't know in which direction. Rate shoppers may see fluctuations of as much as 0.250 percent.

The FOMC adjourns at 12:30 PM ET.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 10, 2012

Mortgage bonds worsened last week as Fiscal Cliff talks moved closer to resolution and as the U.S. economy showed continued signs of growth.

Conforming mortgage rates in New York rose slightly, edging off the all-time lows late in November.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgage rate was 3.34% last week for home buyers and refinancing households willing to pay 0.7 discount points at closing plus a full set of closing costs.

Freddie Mac also showed the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaging 2.67% with an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs.

1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

The two big stories that moved rates worse last week were the Fiscal Cliff talks and the November jobs report.

With respect to the Fiscal Cliff, mortgage rates worsened as Capitol Hill moved closer to a deal which would avoid the dual-event of expiring U.S. tax break and a mandated government spending rollback. These events are both scheduled to occur December 31, 2012. 

Some analysts believe that these two events -- in unison -- could slow U.S. economic growth to the point of recession. Other analysts aren't so sure. However, Wall Street is choosing to be cautious. This is why a break in talks has been good for mortgage rate shoppers of late; and why steps toward avoiding one or both scenarios has been bad for rate shoppers.

Mortgage rates often rise when economic growth is expected. This explains why November's jobs report pushed mortgage rates worse Friday, too -- Wall Street underestimated the Non-Farm Payrolls report which showed 146,000 net new jobs created, and didn't expect to see the national Unemployment Rate drop to 7.7%.

This week, mortgage rates may rise again with new inflation data and a Retail Sales report set for release.

The big event, though, is the Federal Open Market Committee's 2-day meeting scheduled, set to begin Tuesday. The FOMC is not expected to add new economic stimulus, but the Fed's words can carry as much weight as its policies and actions.

The Fed will issue a statement to the markets at 12:30 PM ET Wednesday, and will host a press conference shortly thereafter. Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile all week.

Federal Reserve : New Economic Stimulus May Be Warranted

The Federal Reserve released its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes last week, revealing a Fed in disagreement about the future of the U.S. economy and about what, if any, stimulus may be warranted in the next 12 months.

The "Fed Minutes" recaps the conversations and debates that transpire during an FOMC meeting, and is published 3 weeks after the meeting adjourns. 

According to the October minutes, FOMC members "generally agreed" that a housing recovery is under way nationwide, citing increased housing prices, higher sales volume, and rising construction in many parts of the country.

FOMC members made no major policy changes at their last meeting, but agreed that a continuation of additional asset purchases would likely be necessary in 2013, in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market.

Other notes from within the Fed Minutes included:

• On housing: Signs of improvement are "encouraging", and mortgage rates are at historic lows
• On inflation: Essentially "unchanged", notwithstanding recent increases in energy prices
• On Europe: Production indicators signal contraction in business activity and expansion
• On employment: Employment is rising, and unemployment remains high

The economic forecast prepared by the FOMC staff shows an uptick in consumer spending, residential construction, and labor market conditions which more than offset recent downgrades in the business fixed investment and the industrial production outlooks.

Through 2013, economic activity is projected to accelerate gradually, supported by a lessening in fiscal policy restraints. The Fed also anticipates that Brooklyn, NY home buyers will benefit from looser credit standards.

Low mortgage rates are helping home buyers, too.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was 3.34% last week, down from 3.55% in September. This has given a boost to buyer purchasing power nationwide and the year-end housing market may reflect it. Demand for homes remains strong.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 11-12, 2012.

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (October 24 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.

For the ninth consecutive meeting, the vote was nearly unanimous. And, also for the ninth consecutive meeting, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker was the lone dissenter in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that, since its last meeting six weeks ago, the U.S. economy has been expanding "at a moderate pace", led by growth in household spending. However, "strains in global financial markets" continue to remain threat to U.S. economic growth, a comment which references to the Eurozone and its economy.

The Fed's statement also included the following economic observations :

1. Growth in employment has been slow; unemployment is elevated
2. Inflation pressures remains stable, and below 2%
3. Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed

In addition, the Fed addressed the housing market, stating that there have been "further signs" of improvement, "albeit from a depressed level".

Finally, the Federal Reserve re-affirmed its commitment to its most recent stimulus program, a bond-buying program known as QE3.

Via QE3, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds monthly, with no defined "end date". QE3 is meant to suppress U.S. mortgage rates.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that QE3 will remain in place until the U.S. economy has recovered in full, at least. It's a plan that may help home buyers in New York and nationwide. Since QE3 launched, mortgage rates have moved to new all-time lows.

The Fed also used its meeting to announce that it intends to hold the Fed Funds Rate near its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent until mid-2015, at least.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event and its last of the year, December 11-12, 2012.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 22, 2012

Mortgage markets worsened last week as hope for a European economic rebound and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data moved investors out of mortgage-backed bonds.

Mortgage rates all of types -- conventional, FHA and VA -- lost ground last week, harming home affordability in Brooklyn, NY and reducing purchasing power nationwide.

Rising rates also thwarted would-be refinancing households hoping to time a market bottom.

The increase runs counter to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey which showed the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate dropping 2 basis points to 3.37% nationwide.

This contradiction occurred because Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey is conducted Monday through Wednesday, and because the majority of the surveyed banks reply to Freddie Mac on Tuesday. As a consequence, Freddie Mac failed to capture this week's mid-week movement that took mortgage bonds to a one-month worst.

Access to Freddie Mac mortgage rates is for "prime" borrowers and requires payment of discount points plus closing costs.

This week, mortgage rates may rise again. There is a lot of news on which for Wall Street to trade, beginning with the week's biggest story -- the Federal Open Market Committee's 2-day meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the FOMC's last meeting, the Federal Reserve introduced a third round of qualitative easing (QE3), a program through which the Fed will work to keep mortgage rates low until the economy's recovery is more complete.

The Fed is expected to announce no new stimulus in this, its seventh of eight scheduled meetings for 2012, however, mortgage rates are typically volatile in the hours after the FOMC adjourns.

New housing data is set for release this week, too.

Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release September's tally of New Home Sales. Given the recent strength in Housing Starts and rising confidence among the nation's home builders, New Home Sales may best analyst calls for 385,000 new home sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

Strength in housing has recently correlated with rising mortgage rates.

The housing market's forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is released Thursday.

Fed Minutes Detail QE3 Discussion; Mortgage Rates Down

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released Thursday.

The Fed Minutes detail the discussions and debates which shaped the central banker's launch of its third round of qualitative easing since 2008. The minutes also give Wall Street insight into future monetary policy.

At 6,987 words, the Fed Minutes provides a level of detail that was unavailable via the FOMC's post-meeting press release, a documen that, by contrast, ran 562 words.

Despite its large word count, there was very little that was new or surprising in the Fed Minutes, though. This is because, since the Fed's last meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has publicly clarified and re-iterated the Fed's positions on employment, housing and inflation.

The minutes provide a strong backdrop to his comments, however.

For example, with respect to the jobs market, Fed members deemed employment "disappointing", noting that growth in payrolls has been slower in 2012 as compared to 2011, and that the expansion rate of today's job market is too slow to make significant progress against the national unemployment rate.

The Fed Minutes also included the following notes :

• On housing : Further improvement is occurring, albeit from a "depressed level"
• On inflation : Risks appear "tilted to the downside", but energy costs pose risks
• On Europe : A "slight improvement", but still a risk to global economic activity

Of greatest interest to home buyers in Brooklyn, NY and rate-shopping refinancers, though, was the Fed's discussion of its QE3 program. The program was introduced to help suppress mortgage rates nationwide which, the Fed believes, will make "broader financial conditions" more accommodative.

The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds monthly for a "considerable" period of time after the U.S. economy has already shown signs of full recovery and, since the launch of QE3, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are down 19 basis points to 3.36% nationwide, on average.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for October 23-24, 2012. 

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 13 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Thursday. For the eighth consecutive meeting, the vote was nearly unanimous.

Just one FOMC member, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. 

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy has been expanding "at a moderate pace" in recent months, led by growth in household spending. However, "strains in global financial markets" remain a significant threat to growth in the near-term, a remark made in reference to the Eurozone and its sovereign debt and recession issues.

The Fed's statement also included the following economic observations :

1. Growth in employment has been slow with unemployment elevated
2. Inflation has been subdued, despite rising gas and oil prices
3. Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed

In addition, the Fed addressed the housing market, stating that there have been signs of improvement, "albeit from a depressed level".

The biggest news to come out of the FOMC meeting, though, was the launch of the Fed's third round of quantitative easing (QE3).

QE3 is a program by which the Federal Reserve will purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds monthly, with no defined "end date" for the program. So long as the Fed believes that the market needs support, it will keep QE3 in place.

In the near-term, QE3 is good for Brooklyn, NY rate shoppers and home buyers. With the Fed in line to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month, demand for bonds is expected to remain strong which, all things equal, leads mortgage rates lower.

We're seeing this already today. Mortgage pricing is improving post-FOMC, with rates nearing their lowest levels of the week.

The Fed also used its meeting to announce that it intends to hold the Fed Funds Rate near its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent until mid-2015, at least. At its last meeting, the Fed has marked an end-date of "late-2014".

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event, October 23-24, 2012.