Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer's Market Until January

After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September's reading fell 2 percent.

A "pending home sale" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.

Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market. A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR's monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.

Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.

For home buyers in Brooklyn, NY , this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.

Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.

As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.

Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index's fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side. 

So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.

How Close Do You Live To America's Largest Landfills?

The 1937 opening of the Fresno Municipal Sanitary Landfill marked the birth of the modern landfill.

Today, transporting and burying garbage is a $50 billion annual business with an estimated 3,000 landfills in operation across the country, plus an additional 10,000 municipal "dump" sites.

A recent article by Forbes detailed the nation's 10 largest landfills, collectively profiling the structures as technology-driven, environmentally-responsible, and mostly odor-free.

The 10 largest landfills, according to Forbes:

1. Apex Regional (Las Vegas, NV)
2. Puente Hills (Whittier, CA)
3. Newton County Landfill Partnership (Brook, IN)
4. Okeechobee (Okeechobee, FL)
5. Atlantic Waste (Waverly, VA)
6. Rumpke Sanitary (Colerain Township, OH)
7. Pine Tree Acres (Lenox, MI)
8. El Sobrante (Corona, CA)
9. Veolia Orchard Hills (Davis Junction, IL)
10. Denver Arapahoe Disposal Site (Aurora, CO)

Landfill sites are often "hidden"; blended in to their surroundings. Because of this, when you're shopping for a home, you may not know just how close you're buying to an landfill or dump.

Therefore, be sure to ask your real estate agent about it, and consider following up with the county to learn what materials can be safely disposed at the local site.

Today's Jobs Report Will Keep Mortgage Rates Highly Volatile

Mortgage rates have been falling since April, shedding more than 1 percentage point since the Refi Boom began. Today, that momentum could lose some steam.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October jobs report at 8:30 A.M. ET. With a stronger-than-expected reading, mortgage rates should rise, harming home affordability in New York and nationwide.

As cited by the Fed earlier this week, jobs are a key part of economic growth and growth affects mortgage rates.

Looking back at jobs, starting in January 2010, after close to 24 consecutive months of job loss, the economy added jobs for the first time since 2007. It started a small jobs winning streak. By May -- boosted by the temporary census workers -- monthly job growth reached as far north as 431,000 jobs.

That figure then slipped negative in June and has yet to turn-around.

This month, economists expect 61,000 jobs lost and 9.6% Unemployment Rate.

Jobs matter to the U.S. economy. Among other reasons, employed Americans spend more on everyday goods and services, and are less likely to stop payments on a mortgage. These effects spur the economy, stem foreclosures, and promote higher home values.

The reverse is also true. Fewer workers means fewer disposable dollars and, in theory, a slowing economy. Weak jobs data should spur a stock market sell-off which should, in turn, help lead to mortgage rates lower.

Strong jobs data, on the other hand, should cause mortgage rates to rise.

The stronger October's employment figures, the higher mortgage rates should go.

Mortgage rates have been jumpy this week because of the Federal Reserve and its new support for bond markets. Today's employment report should add to the volatility.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 3, 2010 Edition)

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since September's meeting, the pace of economic and job growth "continues to be slow".  Housing starts are "depressed", income growth is "modest" and commercial real estate investment is "weak".

With respect to its prior economic stimuli, the Fed deemed the recovery "disappointingly slow", while, at the same time, noting that growth will come.

The Fed also noted that inflation is running lower that what's optimal, hinting at the potential for deflation.

Lastly, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", and also announced a new, $600 billion support package for the bond market. In most instances, a move like this would drive mortgage rates lower, but the Fed's stimulus had been widely telegraphed, and $600 billion isn't too far from the initial package estimates.

Mortgage market reaction has been muted thus far. Mortgage rates in Brooklyn, NY are unchanged post-FOMC, but looked poised to worsen.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is December 14, 2010. It's the last scheduled meeting of the year.

Mortgage Rate Lock Alert : Expect Rate Changes Wednesday Afternoon

The Federal Reserve ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It's the seventh of 8 scheduled Fed meetings in 2010, and the eighth overall this year.

The Fed held an unscheduled meeting May 9, 2010.

When today's meeting adjourns, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will publish a formal statement within which the Fed is expected to announce "no change" to the Fed Funds Rate. But that doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't change.

To the contrary, expect mortgage rates to move by a lot this afternoon. Here's why.

The Fed's mission is to preserve stability within banking and the economy and, to achieve that goal, the Fed was bequeathed a number of powers by the U.S. government.

The most well-known of those powers is to right to set the Fed Funds Rate, the rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight. 

Since December 2008, the benchmark Fed Funds Rate has been held in a range of 0.000-0.250 percent, the lowest possible range without going negative.

Now, when the Fed Funds Rate is low, it's meant to loosen credit; to push the economy forward. And, by all accounts, the near-zero Fed Funds Rate is working. The recession ended and the economy is recovering.

However, the Fed has other stimulus-providing tools at its disposal and Wall Street expects the group to use them.  This is where mortgage rates come into play. 

Investors think the Fed will announce a new stimulus in its press release this afternoon and, dependent on the size of package, mortgage rates in New York will either rise, or fall.

• If the package is worth more than $500 billion, rates are expected to fall
• If the package is worth less than $250 billion, rates are expected to rise

If the stimulus is somewhere in between, rates should idle.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science, and guessing the Fed even moreso. Therefore, if you're shopping for a mortgage rate right now, the prudent move is to lock it up prior to today's 2:15 PM ET adjournment because, after to 2:15 PM ET, we can count on the Fed Funds Rate staying flat, but the same can't be said for mortgage rates. 

Call your loan officer this morning.

Better Credit Scores Get Better Mortgage Rates

This week marks the start of the Refi Boom's 7th month across New York ; rates have been falling since early-April 2010. Whether you're looking to refinance or buy a home, however, know that not everyone will qualify for today's low rates.

Mortgage approvals are primarily based on good income, good equity and strong credit, and, without all three, the best rates of the day remain out of reach. Now, you can't always ask for a raise and equity is a function of the housing market, but you can do something about your credit score.

In this 4-minute segment from NBC's The Today Show, you learn some credit basics to help propel your score higher:

• There's no "quick fix" for credit. Time + Good Credit Behavior = Better FICOs.
• Pay every bill when it comes due. Even one late payment can damage your score.
• Don't close old credit cards

Also among the segment's advice is to stop worrying about whether rates have bottomed. Refinance today if it makes financial sense. Then, if, by chance, rates fall in the future, just refinance again.  Don't be greedy, we're told.

Caulking Made Simple With "Caulk Singles"

The amount of air that leaks from the seams of a typical home is the same amount of air that would escape through an open window. It's why home care experts recommend a routine caulking of a home's windows and doors -- at least once per year.

Solid, all-around caulk jobs can reduce a home's energy bill by as much as 20 percent.

A Brooklyn, NY homeowner's basic toolkit should include the familiar caulking gun and tube for larger jobs, but for spot treatment, Caulk Singles can be a good alternative.  A product of GE, Caulk Singles are single-use caulking "packages", squeezable like a toothpaste tube. 

The singles are easier-to-control than a traditional caulking tube, and require no instruction or experience.

Caulk Singles are made in 3 varieties :

• Waterproof Silicone (White), for white finishes
• Waterproof Silicone (Clear), for colored finishes
• Paintable Acrylic, for paintable seals

Caulk Singles cost roughly $2.50 per package on Amazon, but may be cheaper at a local hardware store.